 Political Corrections
with Margo Kingston
Dark days Ahead for Democrats
What if the Democrats expelled Meg Lees? They won't, of course, because it would be too dangerous. But I reckon they should, in the medium term interests of the party and Australian politics.
Here's my theory: the Tampa crisis and September 11 triggered the beginnings of a fundamental realignment in Australian politics. In the search for the swinging vote, former core constituencies in both parties have been betrayed.
Liberal and Labor are for the Pacific Solution. Liberal and Labor are forelock tuggers to the Yanks, despite the risks for us. As Mark Latham said so graphically in the Bulletin this week, Howard was an arse-licker in Washington. Anything from Crean on that?
The Liberals won over the far-right One Nationites, but alienated their 'small l' Liberal constituency. Labor won no-one, but alienated their progressive left constituency. Labor lefties have moved to the Greens for good - they are radicalised and in the mood to dig in and fight, including on union rights. The Liberal left would love to move to the Dems in their first incarnation - as a small-l Liberal breakaway party from the Libs.
On economics, the Liberal left want a Third Way, as does Meg Lees. The difference between them and the hardliners is described by Webdiarist John Wojdylo thus:
'Open market conservatives implement their market reforms in great swathes of destruction, as if believing that the neo-liberalist Utopia is already a reality - as if living the dream of God - and they pay scant attention to the view from the coal-face. The master plan takes precedence over the misery it causes; knowledge of misery makes no impression, it is rationalised away, never to be felt again, never to add to the foundation of moral experience. The wheels grind on, regardless of the skulls being crushed in the name of democracy. The conscience is obliterated by belief in God.
'Social-democrats have the vision of the open market Utopia in mind, look up at it as a distant goal, while trying to keep their feet on the ground. Their conscience ... is still sensitive to the misery they cause. They implement reforms in gentler steps, trying to hang on to social justice. In trying to remain aware of the view at the coalface, they drag their feet and appear bumbling. They're condemned by those who believe that power - in fact, the plausible facade of power - is more important than ethical and moral good.'
Meg Lees is a social democrat. On social policy, she has always been super strong - she would have gone in much harder than Natasha did on asylum seekers, and is deeply committed to the Aboriginal cause. The small l Liberal revolt on the government's terrorism laws shows how important they view human and civil rights, and how unimportant those rights are to the current Liberal Party. The breakaway party Liberals for Forests shows many Liberals deeply disapprove of Coalition antipathy to that cause.
The new Senate in place after June 30 is: Coalition 35, ALP 28, Dems 8, Greens 2, One Nation 1, Independents 2. The government needs the Democrats or four of the other five Senators to pass a law. Sack Lees, and the government needs four of six. Lees is a great dealmaker, a believer in getting her priorities - especially on the environment - over the line in exchange for things she mightn't completely approve of. She's a cost-benefits analysis kind of girl. Remember that for Democrats Senators, every vote is a conscience vote. Meg could garner the votes of up to four Democrats Senators if she could get a good deal out of Howard. Those of her persuasion are John Cherry (Qld), Andrew Murray (WA) and Lynn Alison (Vic), with Aden Ridgeway (NSW) on the fence. Lees could thus effectively hold the balance of power.
In this scenario, Natasha's leftie wing of the Democrats - which failed so woefully in the head-to-head with the Greens at the last election - withers and becomes absorbed into the Greens. Lees leads the rest into a viable alternative for small l Liberals like Greg Barnes, a former adviser to John Hewson (and isn't he sounding like a social-democrat these days!) who resigned for the Liberal Party to join the Democrats this week.
Maybe Lees is thinking the same way. Her famous leaked letter certainly read like a leadership challenge, and almost dared Natasha to sack her. Sack her now, Natasha, and the Democrats will survive. Keep her on, and the Democrats could die.
Email: mkingston@mail.fairfax.com.au
Margo's web diary - www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/webdiary/
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