Political Corrections

with Mungo MacCallum

Bogus budget bonanza

Realistically, even the most determined optimists in the government never expected a huge bounce from the budget.

For starters, a lot of what it provided was a long time overdue; the big items on child payments and aged care had been simmering on the backburner for years, having been held back to make the election year bonanza appear more lavish than it had any right to be. And much of what remained, including the tax cuts, had been comprehensively leaked, or in some cases officially announced, in the lead up weeks.

As a result, Costello's performance on Tuesday night was always going to be a bit of an anti-climax. With all the advance publicity, the risk was that it would look a bit second hand, and that some of the less grateful punters would come away not with ringing applause, but with comments like, "yes, we know all that, but what have you done for us lately?"

However, the sheer range of the largesse guaranteed that the response would be positive, albeit restrained. The scene was set as far back as April 3, with The Australian proclaiming "Plans for huge ongoing tax cuts" (the preferred option of Treasurer Peter Costello) and the Sydney Morning Herald replying with "Plans for huge spending splurge" (John Howard's re-election strategy). For readers of both papers, the clear message was that you could have your cake and eat it too, and hang the expense.

Economists who tried to remind Costello of his earlier warnings about the need to hoard resources to pay for an ageing population ("Demography is destiny") were drowned out in the clamour of backbenchers spooked by the opinion polls and interest groups kicking and gouging to take advantage of their nervousness. And indeed, few of them missed out.

A quick but by no means exhaustive check reveals that the beneficiaries include defence, intelligence services, health, education (though more for private than public), research, nursing homes, child care, land care, veterans affairs, roads, sugar, and a community centre in the electorate of Dobell. And that's just a sample of what was promised before Tuesday.

Add to those Howard's intrusions into state areas (drugs, law and order, and homophobia) and about the only sectors of the community which can claim to have been overlooked are the absinthe drinkers and, of course, the Aborigines.

The sheer extravagance of the package inevitably leads to thoughts of an early election; some of the more enthusiastic coalition running dogs are still barking about August 7. However, Howard isn't one of them.

He knows that the electorate is notoriously fickle; even if the budget goes over better than most people expect and the July 1 tax cuts are still fresh in the punters' wallets, this may not translate into votes if they are called out to an early poll.

Moreover, he is conscious that he has not yet dragged Mark Latham down to his own level; he believes he can do so given time, but at present there is still a bit too much gloss left on the opposition leader to make an election campaign a comfortable experience.

Finally, of course, there is the natural desire of the megalomaniac to hang on to power until the last possible minute and not to take the slightest risk of losing it. October 30 still looks the most likely date.

Meanwhile, what of our unobtrusive treasurer, who has just delivered his record ninth budget and still counting. Paul Keating managed eight before he finally cracked and went for his leader's throat; back in the distant past, after delivering his fourth, Costello said he thought he still had a couple left in him. Half a decade later, even he must be starting to wonder whether this is all there is.

He would never be so bold or crass as to actually do it, but there must have been a moment, as he concluded yet another budget speech on Tuesday night, when he was tempted to conclude: "Mr Speaker, I commend the budget to the house, and if you don't like it you can stick it up your arse. I'm going fishing."

It would be almost a relief to be reassured that the allied brutality against Iraqi prisoners was simply the work of out-of-control, bored young reservists in a situation where discipline had broken down; because the only alternative explanation is far, far worse.

It always seemed unlikely that the systematic abuse (if not, as Donald Rumsfeld pleads, actual torture) to which the prisoners were subjected could have been so precisely targeted to outrage Arab and Moslem sensitivities had it been the unaided work of the grunts, and so it now appears. There is mounting evidence that the interrogators deliberately programmed the degradation as part of a softening up process, and that this has been known to higher authorities for a considerable time.

Moreover, the interrogators were not regular defence personnel, and therefore constrained by the code and traditions of the army, but private consultants hired only to produce results - a kind of free enterprise Atrocities R Us.

Typically, the derisory Alexander Downer was worried - not about the actions themselves, but about their propaganda effect. He can stop worrying: the effect is irrevocable and terminal. Any chance of America, Britain and their allies overseeing a peaceful transition to the democracy of their choice in Iraq is now over.

The only sensible course is to admit it, apologise and leave. This must now be clear to even the most stupid and stubborn. Given time, even Howard and Downer might get it.